Pressing the advantage

PM Abhisit to file charges against claim he ordered violence to be used on Reds - TAN, March 18, 2010
PM Abhisit Vejjajiva will file charges against former Thaksin Shinawatra, red-shirt key leader and Phau Thai MP Jatuporn Phrompan and another red-shirt leader Arisman Pongruengrong for showing doctored audio clip to red-shirts and comparing him to Hitler.
The audio clip featured the voice of PM Abhisit allegedly ordering security officials to use force to crackdown on the red-shirt protesters during April 2009 riot. The clip has been proved to have been doctored using PM Abhisit's voice.

Thonglor Police press charges against Red Shirts - TAN, March 18, 2010
Thonglor Police are pressing charges against red shirts protesters for throwing blood and feces into the prime minister's house. Reports suggest they could possibly seek arrest warrants today.

Soldiers file charge against monk - TAN, March 18, 2010
Soldiers stationed at Kavila Monument in Chiang Mai province have filed a charge against an abbot of Sri Boonrueng Temple who poured blood on them on Wednesday...

Montenegro says has given Thaksin citizenship - Zee News, March 17, 2010
..."Mr. Shinawatra is a Montenegrin citizen and is now located in Montenegro," police spokeswoman Tamara Ralevic said in the statement. "Police authorities have no basis to take any action against Mr. Shinawatra..."

Sihanouk's fall played fateful role - Pacific Daily News, March 16, 2010
Forty years ago tomorrow, on a ride to Moscow Airport, Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin told Prince Sihanouk that the prince had been removed from power as Cambodia's chief of state...

China proposes trans-Eurasian rail system from London to Beijing - Boing Boing, March 16, 2010

'Therapeutic ringtones' for mobile phones create a buzz in Japan - The Times, March 15, 2010

From Truth Today, March 12-15, 2010
The headline reads: ‘Security bill’ a Hitler’s law!?! Tool of the aristocrat-backed government
[This is one of the many, many Hitler references in Red Shirt publications.]

Thaksin draws comparison between Abhisit and Hitler - TAN, March 17, 2010
...Thaksin added that just like the German schizophrenic dictator, Abhisit does not like to talk alone, has problems controlling his ambitions, and violent tendencies.
Thaksin also said that Abhisit is surrounded by homosexuals with emotional problems...

Thai TV today - 11:11, March 17, 2010
Thai TV today is mainly back to regular programming and seems to be downplaying coverage of the Red Shirts. There are reports on the Red Shirts' march across town during news breaks, but the footage is from a grainy web cam (or mobile phone?) and the reporters are reporting over mobile phones. This is in contrast to yesterday when all the stations had clear, long-term coverage of the march and standoff at the 11th Infantry Regiment.

Warden Message: Demonstrations expected in front of U.S. Embassy today, Wednesday March 17, 2010
This warden message alerts U.S. citizens traveling to and residing in Thailand that a gathering of United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (aka UDD or "red-shirts") protestors may demonstrate in front of the U.S. Embassy on Wireless Road sometime today, March 17, 2010.  The protesters will likely arrive before 12 noon.
U.S. citizens should be aware that the UDD protesters may be in the possession of blood specimens... 
[Posted at 10:29 - As far as we can tell, no media outlets have mentioned this alert or what the significance of the U.S. Embassy is to the Red Shirts. It could be related to the Thai government claim that they received intelligence about planned Red Shirt violence from the U.S.]

Red shirts block Sukhumvit - The Nation, March 17, 2010

Suthep invokes ISA to ban rally at PM's house - The Nation, March 17, 2010

Red Shirts show bombs allegedly planted in their rally - TAN, March 17, 2010

Jessica Simpson shocked Thai women want to be white - dimewars.com, March 16, 2010

Call 1555 - March 17, 2010
Above and below are screen captures from a public service announcement playing often on Thai TV. It shows people inside a fenced-off Thailand (above). From outside of the fence, bombs are being thrown in. As more damage is being done, the people start to cry (below). Viewers are asking to call 1555 if they see bombs or suspicious items that are meant to hurt Thailand.

Over half your news is spin - Crikey, March 15, 2010

NASA finds shrimp dinner on ice beneath Antarctica - AP, March 15, 2010

(Source: Channel 7 screen grab)

17:40 - Thai TV is showing men cleaning up blood at Government House gate.

(Source: Channel 7 screen grab)

17:02 - Thai TV is showing footage of a small group of Red Shirts pouring blood at the front gate of heavily guarded Government House.




Above: Traffic Cam - Red Shirts at Government House to pour blood at the gates

Red Shirts marching to Government House - March 16, 2010

Declare victory - March 16, 2010

The Red Shirts are either grasping at straws or stalling with their blood drive. Seeing the disarray within the various pro-Thaksin camps (the Red Shirts, Peau Thai MPs, Gen. Pallop, etc.), as well as conflicting calls on what they want the government to do, it could be that Red Shirts will declare victory and disband their protest after today's blood smearing ceremony rather than risk smaller and smaller numbers.

The three Red Shirt leaders have the most to loose if this happens as they will be seen to be weakened by ineffective protest tactics and low turnout. However, letting the protest dwindle any further would allow foes to discount the Reds as a force that can threaten the government.

Government and security forces remain on highest alert for violence that would benefit the Red Shirts cause and snatch from the government a victory that appears to be within its reach.

If the protest disbands sooner than later, it would lend credence to early conspiracy theories that the entire protest was engineered by Peau Thai Party leaders to discredit and remove the Red Shirt leaders from the scene and allow Peau Thai to take up the political leadership in preparation for future elections.

As we have noted before, all coalition and opposition MPs are happy to allow the Democrats to lead during this difficult time and make all the tough economic choices. When elections do come, everyone can hammer them for selling out the county and putting the country in debt. This was the same strategy Thaksin used against the Democrats in the 1990s to great effect.

(Photo: 2Bangkok.com)

Mahakan Fort News - Amnesty International, March 16, 2010
...In addition to being an integral piece of the architectural landscape of the Ratanakosin area, the fort is also a key site today in a community’s struggle for survival. The countdown has begun: in another 17 months the people living behind the fort will be forced to leave and their homes destroyed. Where is the justice in this? And have the authorities given any thought to the dignity of the people living there?...

More about the Mahakan Fort community

Also: A walk through the Mahakan Fort community

The red atmosphere - Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010
[Interesting article about the situation downtown.]
...She did not think there would be any crackdown at the moment either at Bang Khen or the Ratchadamnoen, “The government is playing patience game with us, they think we will be annoyed and start some nasty things, but that’s not the way we do,” she said...

Grenade story - 14:09, March 15, 2010
The grenade story is now on all the Thai TV channels. It appears something was fired over the wall of the Weepahwahdeerangsit Road side of the 1st Infantry Regiment near one of the gates. Two soldiers were injured and taken to hospital.

Satellite problems? - 14:02, March 15, 2010
The Red Shirts' People's Channel (PTV) appears to be off the air. This could be a technical difficulty though.
Update: This is possibly a satellite problem (perhaps related to sun outages?) as the Nation Channel is gone as well.
Update: 14:16 - The People's Channel (PTV) is back.

Red shirts disperse from 11th Infantry Regiment, head back to Phan Fa - The Nation, March 15, 2010

Right here, right now - 13:52, March 15, 2010
TAN reports: Channel 11 has reported that M-79 grenades were shot into an army camp on Vipavadee Road, injuring 2 soldiers.

Red shirts threaten to deface Government House with their own blood - The Nation, March 15, 2010
[The rhetoric on the Red Shirt stage is heated with leaders taking turns shouting angrily into the microphone in guttural, hoarse voices. It is hard to say whether this is all part of a planned sequence of events or just frustration.]

And here: 1.30pm : Nuttawut Saikua, a red shirt leader, announces that a total of three million cc of blood will be taken from one million red shirts tomorrow. If the prime minister still refuses to dissolve the House, the blood will be poured at Democrat Party, the Government House and the PM's residence. 

Right here, right now: Making a stand - March 15, 2010
A traditional Thai method that allows protesters or strikers to save face is to let their leadership meet with a "person in charge" to submit a list of demands. Then the gathering can disperse with all saving face. The party being protested against is expected to make some concessions as well.

This method was used last year when pro-Thaksin groups insisted they be allowed to approach the Asean venue in Pattaya merely to submit their demands as per traditional practice. However, they tricked the government and used the opportunity to storm the venue.
It is certain the authorities are aware of this and would be loathe to allow Red Shirts to enter the base.

Protesters threaten to break into 11th Infantry Regiment - The Nation, March 15, 2010

And here: 1.08pm : red shirts leaders declare that they want to enter the 11th Infantry Regiment where peacekeeping operations commands is located. If their demand is not met, they would invade the compound. They claim they want to submit a list of demand.

From Daily News, March 14, 2010
The headline reads: Giving a 4-day deadline to end - The red shirt insist to fight! - ‘Arisman’ criticizes the issuance of an arrest warrant [for him] - Raiding the plant producing M79 - Hurrying to seek for the mastermind [refers to raids on factories that had been commissioned to produce M79 grenade launchers]

From Thai Rath, March 14, 2010
The headline reads: Reds pass the checkpoints easily - Massive [numbers] in the metropolitan [area] - [Government] prepared to use the security bill - Revealed that all violent heads come together - 4-day deadline given for parliament dissolution

On the way - March 15, 2010
Here are a a series of screen grabs from the Bangkok traffic jams from around the same time (at approximately 11:19) showing the Red Shirt rally moving through the city to the 11th Infantry Regiment.



Above: The main rally site on Ratachadamneorn Road (looking west)

Above: Victory Monument (looking west)

Above: Just after the Lat Prae intersection (looking north)

Above: In front of the 11th Infantry Regiment (looking south)

(Photo: 2Bangkok.com)

Red Shirts heading to the 11th Infantry Regiment - March 15, 2010
At 10:00 this morning a lone motorcycle drove up and down all the inner sois along Suthisarn Road honking his horn as if to attract more people to come out and join the rally.
By 10:15 a smattering of Red Shirts on motorcycles (above) drove north on Ratachapeisek Road waving to pedestrians and waving flags..

Red Shirts at the 11th Infantry Regiment - March 15, 2010
The Red Shirt media over the past 24 hours has been a steady dumb beat of "the military are going to use violence against us." This message was also prominent in Thaksin's message to the crowd and sound clips allegedly saying the government was ordering the military to use force. These kind of clips are customarily played at Red Shirt gathering and are always denounced by the government and military as crude forgeries.
The 11th Infantry Regiment (a military base) would be the perfect place for a staged attack on Red Shirt protesters, fulfilling the need for outrage and putting a spark of passion in the rally.

Today is the Ides of March

(Source: Khao Sod, March 14, 2010)

So few? - March 15, 2010

From Truth Today, March 5-8, 2010
The headline reads: The Burmese throne - The final period of the monarchy system (44) - The power over the prince’s mother, the King’s wife and the affairs in the palace
[Another Red Shirt article examining the the end of royalty. This article covers the time Burmese royalty were struggling against inflence from England. According to the article, the conflict was caused by the desire for power of the Burmese king’s wife and prince’s wives.]

More from the Red Shirt publications

Kim Jong-il surveys his empire - Boston.com, March, 2010

Photos of New York's World Trade Center under construction - Art Daily, March, 2010
[Nothing to do with Thailand, but interesting.]

UAE: Ban on Skype services unfortunate, says, Skype CEO - TopNews Arab Emirates, March 12, 2010

Update: Eric writes: Just saw the story and link on 2Bangkok regarding the UAE blocking Skype. This is not news to those of us living here, but what is new is that in addition to blocking VOIP, the UAE now appears to be blocking Google Earth. Seems that in the past week or so Google Earth uploaded some new imagery which includes the UAE. It must be showing something that the powers that be do not like to have in the public domain. I've noticed that someone has written "Hamad" in 500 meter high letters on a small island just southwest of Abu Dhabi. This probably is not what is causing the blockage, but something must have gotten under their skin. Perhaps other readers of 2Bangkok have some ideas.

Burmese reactors close to completion: military sources - The Irrawaddy, March, 2010
...The technology for Burma’s nuclear research project was provided by Russia’s Federal Atomic Energy Agency (RFAEA), which agreed in May 2007 to help design and build a 10-megawatt light-water reactor using 20 percent enriched uranium-235 fuel.
However, the Russian agency has since distanced itself from the Burmese nuclear program. This has led to fears that the regime has turned to North Korea for assistance in achieving its nuclear ambitions.

Myanmar: Junta bans election news - The Irrawaddy, March, 2010
In the latest sign that this year's vote will be neither free nor fair, Burma's ruling junta has ordered censors to ban reports on new election laws and other controversial election-related issues, according to Rangoon-based journalists...

Above: Royal Esplanade, 1908

Thaksin, where are you? - Thaksin still banned from entering Germany: German envoy - The Nation, March 14, 2010

UDD to go to 11th Infantry Regiment - Bangkok Post, March 14, 2010

Ministry: 46,000 people attend UDD rally - Bangkok Post, March 14, 2010

Website opened to keep public informed - Bangkok Post, March 14, 2010

The site: capothai.org

From Thai Freedom, March, 2010
The main headline reads: Tanks for judging the game of flipping the land [This also refers to the Red Shirt claim of a "good" coup carried out by military "watermelons"--those in the military who are secretly red inside and loyal to Thaksin who will help overthrown the present government.]

It's the Red Shirts' move - March 14, 2010

For some time the Red Shirts have been insisting that a coup is imminent and is the only way out for a discredited government that cannot maintain control. They they have been hoping for this to widen their protests and open demands for a new charter and pardons for all. Some of the public might also believe that if a large group holds Bangkok "hostage" that the military would need a coup to restore order.
Today on his weekly broadcast, PM Abhisit again stressed "no need for a coup" to address this perception.
Much of the Red Shirt rhetoric has been trying to provoke fear that would lead the military to intervene--this is what is behind the anti-royal rhetoric and threats to burn Bangkok to the ground.
As the day progresses, it is coming to a time where everyone will be looking to see what the Red Shirts have in store. It will be their move. Can they really hold the city "hostage?" Would this disruption naturally lead to a house dissolution? Or a coup?
It is also worth noting that the military is already in complete control on the ground--soldiers are standing guard in critical junctures in Bangkok and in adjacent provinces. The PM himself is under military guard at the 11th Infantry Regiment. This sort of military control never even happens during an actual coup.
The military are quite happy to call the shots behind the scenes and let the government take the heat. A coup would not change any conditions on the ground and would give the Red Shirts a victory without them have to take action to do anything provocative.
It is also clear to us that the real activity is happening behind the scenes. This includes attempts to get government coalition partners to pull out of the government. Any real victory will come from these political machinations.
It seems certain that the Red Shirts must have a well-timed and provocative plan of action, perhaps with a diversionary aspect. One should never underestimate Thaksin.
However, if the Red Shirts seem to be stalling (such as remaining in place), it might indicate their plans are faltering.

Suan Dusit Poll: Red Rally opinions - March 14, 2010
[A rough translation of a poll released Sunday morning.]

How are people getting information about the rallies?
Television - 68.87%
Newspapers - 12.29%
From internet/From SMS - 9.81%
Radio - 4.72%
Word of mouth - 4.31%

What info do people want from the media?
Immediate reports of events / Live reporting from the scene - 48.11%
Providing clear and straightforward information - 34.71%
Interviews with key people - 17.18%

People think that the protest rally of the Red Shirts is an expression of true democracy. True or not?
Not an expression of true democracy. - 57.14%
(Seen as a rally for one person, it is a war of nerves to generate disturbances for the government, a political game, etc.)
An expression of true democracy. - 23.81%
(Because the constitution states that the public has the right to assemble or point out what they see not to be fair, etc.)
Not sure. - 19.05%
(Because several groups have gathered with different goals and opinions.)

Lessons gathered from the protest are:
The image of Thailand in foreign eyes gets worse. - 27.30%
Damage and impact on business investment and tourism. - 25.18%
People not involved in either side must concern themselves with serious situations that occur. - 23.92%
Traffic congestion/not easy to travel. - 13.49%
The belief that Thai people love each other is not true. - 10.11%

From Thai Red News, March 12-18
The main headline reads: D-DAY, March 14, 2010 - Foot clappers to fight M16 - who will stay, who will [say] farewell? [This shows the red clapper foot, a symbol of Red Shirt protests, coming down on a soldier carrying an "aristocrat."]

More from the Red Shirt publications

Thaksin insists he's in Europe, not Cambodia - The Nation, March 14, 2010

FM: Thaksin asked to leave UAE - Bangkok Post, March 13, 2010
...“High ranking government official of the UAE had confirmed that the fugitive ex-premier has been asked to leave UAE for having violated an agreement that he will not use the country as base for his political activities”, assistant to the foreign affairs minister Phanich Wikitseth said on Saturday afternoon...

From Krungthep Turakit, March 12, 2010
The main headline reads: Government 100% assured of security beef up in preparation for the red gathering - "Red shirts’ gather at 5 spots - Pressure for parliament dissolution - Suthep assigns the Navy to standby five groups of troops for security beef up at Siriraj Hospital

Red Shirts confident one-million protester goal 'not a dream' - TNA, March 13, 2010

"Two Siamese friends" - March 13, 2010

Win a Bangkok trip to celebrate birthday - Times Online, March 11, 2010
...Bangkok is such a vibrant city full of contrasts, and, of course the winners may even want to explore further by visiting some of our wonderful beach resorts. But if they opt to remain just in Bangkok, I am sure they will have a wonderful time...”

Thais, Hollywood stars go crazy for 'super-human' tattoos - CNN, March 11, 2010

Thailand: The country with a lot of news - February 25, 2010
Compared to other developing countries, Thailand has always had an amazing amount of major political news stories each week. The events of the last few years has only increased this.
Take four years ago in late February 2006: PM close to quitting, Thaksin filing multiple lawsuits against newspaper and political parties for defamation and "obstruction of democracy," Thai press talking about the evil omens of the Thaksin years, government TV reporters fired for interviewing the opposition, and, of course, CNN pondering Thailand's "presidential crisis."

Designs for the new parliament design exhibition - February 19, 2010
Andreas writes: The BACC currently has an exhibition on the designs of the new parliament... English - Thai - 2Bangkok forum thread on the topic

New riverside park - January 12, 2009
There's a new riverside park under construction at Tha Tien pier (Google Earth Placemark). Anyone know any more details about this?